In determining a reasonable timescale for the conversion of diesel trucks to electric trucks, the first consideration was carbon emissions. A 1.7 degree Celsius target was used, meaning the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted while keeping global warming under 1.7 degrees Celsius. It was assumed that truck sales – and therefore the maximum conversion rate – would remain approximately constant at 180,000 trucks per year.[1]“RealClimate: A Deep Dive into the IPCC’s Updated Carbon Budget Numbers,” August 12, 2021. … Continue reading[2]Carlier, Mathilde. “U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales from 2007 to 2020, by Brand.” Statista, March 23, 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/245369/class-8-truck-sales-by-manfuacturer/. It was also assumed, based on an estimate from Wood Mackenzie, that about 54,000 trucks would be converted by 2025.[3]McCoy, Kelly. “WoodMac: 54,000 Electric Trucks on US Roads by 2025.” GreenTechMedia, August 11, 2020. … Continue reading To see this calculation, click here. However, making the calculation with these assumptions showed that all truck sales would need to be electric by the end of 2026, which was deemed infeasible. This was because only 54,000 trucks are expected to be converted by 2025, meaning that an extremely rapid acceleration would have to occur in the span of only two years.
Considering this result, a new approach was taken. The year in which all sales could feasibly be electric was estimated to be 2030, though this estimate is undoubtedly ambitious, and the actual rate of conversion is difficult to predict. To determine a reasonable estimate for conversion rates, several factors were taken into account.
- The number of electric trucks on the road in 2020 was estimated to be roughly 2000.[4]McCoy, Kelly. “WoodMac: 54,000 Electric Trucks on US Roads by 2025.” GreenTechMedia, August 11, 2020. … Continue reading The rate of conversion in 2020 was considered negligible. 2020 was used as a starting point since most data from 2021 is not yet available.
- The number of electric trucks on the road was estimated to increase to 54,000 by 2025.[5]McCoy, Kelly. “WoodMac: 54,000 Electric Trucks on US Roads by 2025.” GreenTechMedia, August 11, 2020. … Continue reading
- All sales were expected to be electric by 2030, and annual sales were expected to remain approximately constant at 180,000 trucks per year.[6]Carlier, Mathilde. “U.S. Class 8 Truck Sales from 2007 to 2020, by Brand.” Statista, March 23, 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/245369/class-8-truck-sales-by-manfuacturer/.
- Three models were used – one quadratic model from 2021 to 2025, accounting for initial slow growth during infrastructure expansion, a second quadratic model from 2025 to 2030, reflecting increasing growth, and finally a linear model after 2030, at the asymptotic slope of 180,000 trucks per year.
For more details on these calculations, click here.
Source: self-made
This yielded a 23 year timescale: all trucks would be electric by 2044. Using this model for conversion, the carbon emissions between the present and 2044 was calculated, considering the carbon emissions of the diesel trucks still in use each year. This yielded a figure of 4.3 Gigatons of carbon dioxide (click for calculation).
If the share of US trucking in world emissions remains constant, then this is good news – 4.3 Gigatons is only slightly over the amount of carbon dioxide allowed by the 1.7 degree target. However, this is likely a faulty assumption, because the US population is remaining relatively constant while other populations continue to grow.[7]“World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booklet | United Nations ILibrary.” Accessed November 20, 2021. https://www.un-ilibrary.org/content/books/9789210042475/read. Also, other economies are quickly developing, which raises their share of emissions. As shown in Figure 2, the share of emissions from the US is declining slowly, while world emissions increase rapidly. Therefore, US trucking is likely to make up a smaller and smaller percentage of world emissions.
Source: Our World In Data[8]Ritchie, Hannah, and Max Roser. “CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” Our World in Data, May 11, 2020. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions.
In order to truly combat climate change, changes must not only be implemented in the US and other developed economies, but also in developing ones (for definitions of developed and developing economies, see Country Classifications in the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects)[9]World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014. New York: United Nations, 2014.. As infrastructure continues to expand in developing economies, developed economies should not only be looking to make their own infrastructure sustainable, but also to support sustainable development across the globe. The vast majority of the climate crisis is due to the unsustainable actions of the developed world, yet its worst effects will be borne by those who had the smallest part in its cause. This is because current developed economies are responsible for the vast majority of emissions, but the effects of climate change will be the worst for those in the hottest regions of the world and with the least access to technologies that help with rising temperatures – generally those in developing economies.[10]USGLC. “Climate Change and the Developing World: A Disproportionate Impact.” Accessed November 20, 2021. … Continue reading
This is an ambitious timeline, yet it is still only on the cusp of success. In order for these solutions to be effective, they must be implemented not just in the US, but worldwide, and not five or ten years in the future, but immediately. For climate change to be alleviated and disaster averted, action is needed, now.
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