Congestion is a cause for delays in on-time arrivals. When ships cannot unload their cargo on time, all future steps in the global shipping process are delayed. They are also forced to wait near the port, increasing the chance of collisions and ships’ anchors dragging[1]United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “Port Operational Strategies: Virtual Vessel Arrival.”. As shown in the graph below, it is common for global ports to be significantly delayed[2]United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “Port Operational Strategies: Virtual Vessel Arrival.”. To maximize the use of ships and trucks and to minimize GHG emissions, congestion must be minimized.
Virtual arrival can reduce congestion. It works as follows: Ports would notify ships of when they are able to receive their cargo. Ships would then lower their speed if their predicted arrival time is significantly earlier than the port service time, meaning that the ships would arrive at the port only when they are available to be serviced – causing a reduction in congestion at ports and emissions. Ship speed may change throughout the course of the voyage because of changing wind patterns, port delays, and other unexpected events. This prevents congestion because ports would be prepared to receive ships when they arrive. Ships would unload their cargo close to the time of their arrival.
In order to implement virtual arrival, shipping companies must first acquire an algorithm that determines what speed the ship should use to minimize emissions while ensuring that the ship arrives at the port on time.[4]05/2011, “Virtual Arrival: Optimising Voyage Management and Reducing Vessel Emissions – an Emissions Management Framework” (Oil Companies International Marine Forum, n.d.), … Continue reading This algorithm must consider factors such as weather conditions, ship type (weight, size, etc.), and location. Researchers have been developing these algorithms. Ogura et. al developed a model that predicts ship arrival time with 85% accuracy[5]Beverly Wright, “TOWARD EQUITY: PRIORITIZING VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES IN CLIMATE CHANGE,” Duke Forum for Law and Social Change 4, no. 1 (2012).. Implementing virtual arrival would also require port operators to notify incoming ships of delays. Ports may need to hire additional operators depending on the current workload placed on their workers.
Using virtual arrival will reduce air pollutant emission from ships. Currently ships are going at top speed, arriving at a port early, and being forced to wait to unload their cargo (since other ships are being serviced). Thus, causing congestion. Virtual arrival proposes that ships can instead go at a slower pace – which requires less fuel to maintain than going at top speed – throughout the entirety of the trip and arrive at the port exactly on time to be serviced. In a study where ships using virtual arrival made 50 voyages, fuel consumption was reduced by 27%[7] United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “Port Operational Strategies: Virtual Vessel Arrival.”. This reduction corresponds to 64.8 fewer tons of fuel used per voyage. This results in each ship emitting 202 tons less of CO2, 4.9 tons less of NO2, and 3.9 tons less of SO2 (each of which respectively correspond to 2.4%, 95.8%, and 1.8%) per voyage[8]United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “Port Operational Strategies: Virtual Vessel Arrival.”. A separate report showed that ships saved as much as 138 tonnes of fuel per trip. This corresponds to 655 less tonnes of CO2 produced per trip[9]Haiying Jia and et. al, “Energy Efficiency with the Application of Virtual Arrival Policy – ScienceDirect,” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 54 (July 2017): 50–60.. Furthermore, a third study reveals that virtual arrival reduces 50% of emitted carbon dioxide emissions (as seen in the graph below).
Virtual arrival has been shown to be economical. In comparison to current methods of going at top speed, implementing virtual arrival will make economical sense for ship companies since throughout the whole trip the ships will be expending less fuel. For example, ESL Shipping, a steel production company, has been using virtual arrival at the Port of Oxelösund, Sweden. This has reduced idling at ports, thus reducing fuel consumption, and consequently the overall cost as less capital is required to buy fuel[11]05/2011, “Virtual Arrival: Optimising Voyage Management and Reducing Vessel Emissions – an Emissions Management Framework” (Oil Companies International Marine Forum, n.d.), … Continue reading.
Even though the benefits of virtual arrival are apparent, there are some costs. Ports need to alert ships whenever the required arrival time, the time the port is available to intake the ship’s cargo, changes.[12] “United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Transportation and Air Quality, “Port Operational Strategies: Virtual Vessel Arrival.” This would require workers to facilitate this process. Ports would need additional sensors, data, and machine learning models to automate this process and to automatically predict the required arrival time. Some other barriers include the risk of arriving late or after closing time and the staffing required to collect the needed data. [13]Beverly Wright, “TOWARD EQUITY: PRIORITIZING VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES IN CLIMATE CHANGE,” Duke Forum for Law and Social Change 4, no. 1 (2012). Additionally, some ship engines are designed to function at a certain load and, speed and slow-burning the fuel would require additional work to be done – such as “de-rating[14]“Engine De-Rating,” accessed November 20, 2021, https://glomeep.imo.org/technology/engine-de-rating/..” De-rating refers to adapting certain parts of a ship’s engine, such as widening exhaust valves, to better accommodate the slower speed and output. Such modifications would require time and investment.
Virtual Arrival Timeline
- 2025: pass legislation (either in all US states with significant maritime trade or at the US federal level) which requires all ports to implement virtual arrival by 2040.
- 2030: have 30% of US ports implement virtual arrival
- 2040 on onwards: virtual arrival will be implemented in all US ports
References
